Ruben Gallego's Chances of Winning Arizona Senate Election

Representative Ruben Gallago, a Democrat, launched his campaign to challenge Arizona Senator Krysten Sinema on Monday, setting up what is expected to be one of the closest

Senate races of 2024. Arizona emerged as one of the closest swing states in recent elections, with Democrats winning most statewide elections in the 2022 midterm elections.

But Sinema—a former Democrat who announced late last year that she would switch her party affiliation to independent—adds an extra layer of uncertainty to the 2024

election. Democrats worry Sinema, who has not yet said whether she plans to run for reelection, could siphon off enough votes to help a Republican flip the seat. Prior to

dropping her Democratic affiliation, Sinema enraged many in her own party over her opposition to eliminating the filibuster to pass key legislation, including a nationwide law

securing reproductive rights. Gallego, a former Marine combat veteran who currently represents a Phoenix-area Congressional district, became the first major candidate to

formally announce a 2024 Senate run. Early polls point to a close race in the battleground state, with no party having a clear advantage nearly two years until the

election. One survey, conducted by Blueprint Polling from January 5 to 8 among 618 voters, found a narrow lead for a Republican candidate. The poll surveyed voters in a

hypothetical election between Gallego, Sinema and Republican Kari Lake, who lost the gubernatorial election last year.